By Nathan Boardman
Many stock investors view fundamental analysis as the ultimate tool for making informed decisions. According to Warren Buffet, he accumulated his wealth with the help of this. Those who view him as a role model attest to the efficacy of this approach. The media is constantly showered with compliments.
Nevertheless, inquire with any Forex trader about their adherence to fundamental analysis, and the response will overwhelmingly be in the negative. We are not discussing individuals who claim to be experts in this context.
Many individuals will also concur with this viewpoint. Their viewpoint might not carry as much weight, though, because people might not view them as “sufficiently qualified.”
We are discussing individuals who engage in trading for major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Evidently, the foreign exchange market as a whole has little faith in fundamental analysis.
Participants in this financial market strongly reject the notion that fundamental changes drive their market. Forex traders are left without the highly sought-after “fundamental analysis,” a crucial tool utilized by traders across the globe. That’s what sets Forex trading apart from other financial markets – its unparalleled distinctiveness.
In this article, we will explore the main factors that contribute to the ineffectiveness of fundamental analysis in Forex markets.
Data That Was Manipulated
Politicians secure or forfeit their positions depending on the statistics concerning joblessness, price hikes, and other economic indicators. Therefore, they have a significant stake in distorting the data to create the illusion of their competence. China and other countries have been known to manipulate their data in order to attract foreign investments.
Stock markets employ auditors to verify the authenticity of the information disclosed to the public. Nevertheless, there are no such obligations for Forex markets. Data manipulation is widespread. Furthermore, there needs to be more uniformity in the methods used to calculate these figures among various nations. Using data that is fundamentally incorrect for fundamental analysis is highly inappropriate.
Data That Is Too Old
To make wise decisions, forex traders rely on information from other countries. They monitor the information on unemployment, inflation, productivity, and other related data. Nevertheless, there is frequently a three to six-month delay in the information that countries provide.
It is impossible to provide this data in real time for traders to make informed decisions. Consequently, once this information reaches the market, it needs to be updated. Therefore, if choices are made relying on outdated information, they are destined to result in a negative outcome.
The Market Typically Overreacts
The foreign exchange markets are known for their rapid and sometimes exaggerated reactions. If the fundamental analysis were able to determine that a currency was undervalued, it would experience a sudden surge in value. A constant cycle of human emotions, including a desire for gain and a fear of loss, is what drives the forex markets.
The market reacts strongly when it discovers that the currency is either overpriced or underpriced. Therefore, intrinsic worth is simply an academic figure. The currency’s value is unlikely to stabilize at that figure ultimately. In addition, the basics of any currency are constantly evolving from one instant to another.
Therefore, countries themselves are constantly evolving, unlike companies. Using a hypothetical figure as the foundation for your trades might not be advisable, as the market may never truly stabilize at what is commonly known as the “equilibrium point,” according to supporters of fundamental analysis.
Uncountable of Factors
Stock markets are confined to one or a few economies. As an illustration, the economic development taking place within the borders of Great Britain has a significant impact on the FTSE. Nevertheless, the Forex market operates on a global scale. The international economic and political events influence it! Therefore, a countless array of elements are at play.
Listing all the countless factors that impact the Forex market is an incredibly daunting task, not to mention the challenge of monitoring and utilizing them for decision-making. Forex traders are well aware that fundamental analysis can be a time-consuming task with limited long-term advantages, as they have discovered through their own experiences and experimentation.
The Timing Is Not Disclosed
Imagine if you were able to unravel the intricate code of the Forex market. You’ve managed to uncover that the Euro is excessively valued in comparison to the dollar. The Euro needs to rectify itself by experiencing a decrease in its value relative to the dollar. Nevertheless, the crucial inquiry is when this decline will occur. No one has a definitive answer.
Through extensive analysis, it is possible to determine whether a specific currency is overvalued or undervalued. Nevertheless, the majority of wagers made in the Forex markets employ leverage. Speculative wagers come with a predetermined time limit, making it impossible to retain them for an extended period, as Warren Buffet often suggests.
Therefore, if you make a perfectly accurate wager at an inopportune moment, you will incur financial losses. Due to the interest being charged and the increasing mark-to-market losses, you will probably need to close your position and record losses.
Alternatively, if someone were to refrain from using leverage and hold the bets for an extended period, the potential gains and losses would be minimal. Conducting fundamental analysis would prove to be an unproductive endeavor.
